1/25/2007
"Seasonally adjusted" is a process whereby normal seasonal
changes are removed or discounted from monthly data. Taking
employment as an example, we know that some industries show large
fluctuations in employment because they need more or less employees at
certain times of the year. Ski resorts, for instance, hire far more
employees in the winter months to accommodate snow skiing season.
Employment in education fluctuates greatly at the beginning and the
ending of the school year. Retail businesses typically hire more
employees during the holiday season late in the year.
By seasonally adjusting employment, statisticians attempt to adjust the
influences of predictable seasonal patterns to reveal how employment and
unemployment change from month to month. The adjustment consists of
either raising or lowering the actual employment reported by a certain
percentage to reflect the normal seasonal increases or decreases that
historically occur.
This explains why you often see two sets of employment figures,
seasonally adjusted and non-seasonally adjusted.
Typically, the monthly employment and unemployment numbers reported in
the news are seasonally adjusted data. Seasonally adjusted data are
useful when comparing several months of data. Annual average estimates
are calculated from the not seasonally adjusted data series.
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