Sample 1 - State of California
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The Links between California and National Projections


  The Link between National and State Industry Projections
  The Link between National and State Occupational Projections
The Link between National and State Industry Projections

California forecasts industry and occupational growth trends for both the State and Local areas.  The California employment projections are tied directly to the national projections developed by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).  The most frequently used statistical models include national industry projections as an independent variable, which then influence statewide industry projections.  Local projections in turn use statewide industry data in projection models so that national projections are also linked to local projections.

U.S. projections address a variety of national factors which shape the current and future view of the economy including:
  • The size and demographic composition of the labor force.
  • The growth of the aggregate economy.
  • Final demand or gross domestic product (GDP) subdivided by consuming sector and product.
  • Inter-industry relationships (input-output).
  • Industry output and employment.
  • Occupational employment.
These factors, then, influence the California state projections through the use of national data in state models.  An in-depth look at the methods used in arriving at these factors and in developing the national projections overall can be found at:  stats.bls.gov/opub/hom/homch13_a.htm.  For a less technical look at projection methods and a summary of the projections, see the online version of the Occupational Outlook Quarterly at:  www.bls.gov/opub/ooq/ooqhome.htm.



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