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Employment Development Department
Employment Development Department

Occupational Employment Projections Methodology

Occupational Employment Projections estimate the changes in occupational employment over time resulting from industry growth, technological changes, and other factors. Industry growth exists when the demand for goods and services increases, resulting in an increased demand for workers to produce these goods and services. Technological changes can raise the demand for some skills while eliminating the demand for others.

The State and sub-state area Long-Term projections are for a 10-year period. The projections are revised every two years to incorporate economic changes that occur in the State and local areas. Statewide Short-Term projections are for a two-year period and are revised annually.

Using Occupational Employment Projections Data

The occupational employment projection tables are an excellent source of information to estimate job opportunities by occupation. Projections of Industry and Occupation Employment can be used to assess the need for job training programs and gain an insight into future employment trends. However, keep in mind that projections are just one planning tool and that the estimates are based on information available at the time the forecast was made.

When using projections data, users should keep in mind:

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Projections of Employment

Changes in occupational employment over time are a result of changes in staffing patterns and industry growth. Both components are used to develop occupational employment projections. Following is a description of data sources and the occupational employment projections process.

Principal Data Sources
The EDD collects survey data from approximately 105,000 California employers through the Occupational Employment Statistics (OES) program over a three year period. The survey samples two panels annually, with approximately 17,500 establishments per panel. Employers report on the survey how many individuals they employ in each occupation. The OES program uses the Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) definitions to collect the survey data, which covers over 800 occupations.

The Process
Analysts use the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) projections software to:

After the occupational employment projections file is produced, the analyst will:

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Occupational Employment Projections Tables

The occupational employment projections are listed in order by SOC code in three tables. The Occupational Employment Projections table provides a comprehensive list of occupations by SOC Code. The Occupations with the Most Job Openings table lists the occupations with the most job openings over the projections period and the Occupations with the Fastest Job Growth table lists the occupations by percent change.
The tables provide the following information for each occupation:

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Economic Assumptions

The occupational projections in this report are based on the following assumptions:

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Other Considerations

The occupational movements within an industry are controlled by industry-occupational change factors, which are developed by the BLS. Individual occupational employment may not increase or decrease at the same rate as the entire industry. In fact, there may be a number of occupations whose employment moves in the opposite direction of the entire industry.

Because the occupational data are based on a survey, it is important that the following points be considered:

For additional information on economic conditions in a particular local area, contact the LMID's local labor market consultants who are located in the community. They are knowledgeable about the economic activities within the areas they serve. Other resources include the local EDD's Offices that provide job services and One-Stop locations that offer additional publications on labor market information.

Revised: July 2010

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